February 4, 2026

Real gross domestic product (GDP) was essentially unchanged in November, following a 0.3% decline in October, as contractions in goods-producing industries offset expansions in services-producing industries.

Chart 1
Real gross domestic product is essentially unchanged in November

Goods-producing industries declined 0.3% in November, down for the third time in four months, driven by contractions in the manufacturing and agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting sectors in the month. Services-producing industries edged up 0.1%, with expansions in the retail trade, educational services and transportation and warehousing sectors. Overall, 10 of the 20 industrial sectors grew in November.

Manufacturing sector down on supply chain bottlenecks

The manufacturing sector fell 1.3% in November, with decreases in both durable-goods and non-durable-goods manufacturing industries.

Chart 2
Manufacturing sector continues to contract in November

Durable-goods manufacturing industries declined 1.9% in November, following a 2.6% drop in October. Transportation equipment manufacturing (-3.8%), machinery manufacturing (-2.5%) and fabricated metal product manufacturing (-2.1%) contributed the most to November’s decline. Output of motor vehicles and parts manufacturing (-6.4%) was largely constrained by a global semiconductor shortage, curtailing auto production at a major assembly plant in November.

Durable-goods manufacturing has declined in November to levels last seen in mid-2011, excluding the first half of 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic began. Since the aggregate’s peak in March 2023, machinery manufacturing, fabricated metal product manufacturing, and primary metal manufacturing have contributed the most to the decline.

Non-durable-goods manufacturing industries decreased 0.8% in November 2025, driven in large part by monthly contractions in food manufacturing (-1.6%) and plastics and rubber products manufacturing (-3.7%). Meanwhile, chemical manufacturing (+1.9%) and petroleum and coal product manufacturing (+0.2%) tempered the decline. The increase in petroleum and coal product manufacturing reflected continued strength in petroleum refineries (+0.7%), where output rose following the completion of maintenance and subsequent re-opening of a major refinery.

Wholesale trade sector down for the second straight month

The wholesale trade sector contracted 2.1% in November, the largest contraction since April 2025. Contractions in motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories wholesaling and building material and supplies wholesaling drove the decline in November.

Chart 3
Wholesale trade declines in November

In November, motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories merchant wholesalers dropped 12.6%, reflecting lower activity in both the motor vehicle and used motor vehicle parts and accessories industry groups, coinciding with disrupted motor vehicle production activity due to the global semiconductor shortage.

Retail trade up on widespread strengths across all subsectors

The retail trade sector expanded 1.3% in November, as all subsectors grew in the month. This increase more than offset the back-to-back monthly declines in the two preceding months.

Chart 4
Retail trade sector grows in November

Food and beverage retailers (+2.5%) rebounded in November, reflecting higher beer, wine and liquor retailing activity, following the conclusion of a work action in British Columbia on October 26 that had disrupted activity since September 2.

A rebound in educational services largely boosts public sector growth

The public sector aggregate (comprising educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration) rose 0.4% in November, more than offsetting October’s 0.3% decline.

Educational services (+1.0%) contributed the most to the increase in the aggregate in November, partially offsetting October’s contraction. The increase in educational services was driven in large part by a rise in elementary and secondary schools (+1.7%), as classes resumed in Alberta following the end to the teachers’ strike on October 29.

Expansions in health care and social assistance (+0.2%) and public administration (+0.1%) further supported the increase in the public sector in November.

Transportation and warehousing sector grows on postal service recovery

Transportation and warehousing rose 0.9% in November, as most subsectors expanded in the month. This increase more than offset October’s 0.8% decline.

The postal service subsector jumped 41.7% in November, largely offsetting October’s 31.4% decline. Mail and parcel delivery activities resumed after all job actions were suspended on November 21, following an agreement in principle between Canada Post and the Canadian Union of Postal Workers.

Chart 5
The postal service recovers in November

Warehousing and storage (+2.7%) further contributed to the growth in November, along with pipeline transportation (+1.4%). This was the pipeline transportation subsector’s first increase in four months, led by growth in pipeline transportation of natural gas (+2.1%) and higher crude oil and other pipeline transportation (+0.6%).

Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting contracts for the second consecutive month

The agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting sector declined 1.1% in November, following a 0.6% decrease in October, as nearly all subsectors were down in November. Crop production (except cannabis) (-1.3%) was the largest contributor to the back-to-back monthly contractions in October and November, driven by declines in other grains and wheat crops.

Forestry and logging (-2.8%) declined for the third straight month in November. This was the subsector’s largest contraction since May 2023, bringing activity to a record low level, as timber harvesting companies scaled back production in response to sawmill production cutbacks and weak lumber markets.

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Main industrial sectors’ contribution to the percent change in gross domestic product in November

Advance estimate for real gross domestic product by industry for December 2025

Advance information indicates that real GDP increased 0.1% in December. Increases in manufacturing and wholesale trade were partially offset by decreases in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. Owing to its preliminary nature, this estimate will be updated on February 27, 2026, with the release of the official GDP by industry data for December 2025.

With this advance estimate for December, information on real GDP by industry suggests that the economy decreased 0.1% in the fourth quarter and increased 1.3% in 2025. The official estimates for the fourth quarter and the year will be available on February 27, 2026, when the official estimate of GDP by income and expenditure is released.

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