May 6, 2026

Real gross domestic product (GDP) was up 0.2% in February, with goods-producing industries driving the growth for the second consecutive month.

Chart 1
Real gross domestic product grows in February

Goods-producing industries grew 0.4% in February, driven by expansions in manufacturing and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. Services-producing industries edged up 0.1%, as rebounds in transportation and warehousing and wholesale trade were largely offset by contractions in the public sector.

Manufacturing sector regains momentum

The manufacturing sector led the growth in February, rising 1.8% in the month. This was the largest monthly growth in the sector since January 2023 (+2.2%) and was driven by a 3.6% expansion in durable-goods manufacturing industries.

Chart 2
Manufacturing sector rises in February

The machinery manufacturing subsector (+8.7%) led the rebound in February, on strengths in the industrial machinery manufacturing and metalworking machinery manufacturing industry groups, coinciding with higher exports of many machinery products.

Transportation equipment manufacturing rose 5.5% in February, partly recovering from January’s contraction (-7.0%). Following three consecutive monthly contractions, motor vehicles and parts manufacturing jumped 9.8% in February, with expansions in motor vehicle manufacturing (+20.4%), motor vehicle parts manufacturing (+4.2%) and motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing (+7.9%). Several auto assembly plants in Ontario were in the process of ramping-up production, following shutdowns related to model-change, retooling and assembly-line maintenance in January. The expansion in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing further coincided with higher exports of passenger cars and light trucks as well as motor vehicle engines and parts, in response to rising motor vehicle production in the United States.

Wholesale trade returns to growth as automotive supply chain bottlenecks ease

The wholesale trade sector rose 0.9% in February, largely offsetting January’s decrease.

Motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories merchant wholesalers (+6.1%) led the growth in February, corresponding to increased production of motor vehicles as well as higher exports and imports of passenger cars and light trucks and motor vehicle engines and parts.

A rebound in personal and household goods merchant wholesalers (+2.4%) further contributed to the growth, driven by growth in pharmaceuticals and pharmacy supplies. After a decrease in December 2025, food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers rose for the second consecutive month, up 2.7% in February, corresponding to increased food manufacturing and international trade activity.

Transportation and warehousing rebounds

The transportation and warehousing sector rose 1.2% in February on strengths in most of its subsectors.

In February, truck transportation (+2.3%) recorded its largest growth since March 2021, driven by higher activity in industries reliant on freight movement and on transborder movement of goods. Industries reliant on this mode of transportation service include food manufacturing (+3.2%), primary metal manufacturing (+5.2%), and transportation equipment manufacturing (+5.5%), along with wholesale trade (+0.9%), retail trade (+0.2%), as well as postal service and couriers and messengers (+3.3%).

Following three consecutive monthly contractions, support activities for transportation rose 1.2% in February due in large part to the recovery in transportation equipment manufacturing.

Rail transportation was up 1.6%, reflecting increased intermodal carloadings as well as higher potash and canola carloadings, along with other agricultural goods.

Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction grows for the second month in a row

Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction grew 0.4% in February, driven by increased activity in oil and gas extraction as well as mining and quarrying (except oil and gas).

Oil and gas extraction (+0.4%) recorded its second consecutive monthly increase in February. The February increase was driven by higher activity in oil and gas extraction (except oil sands) (+2.3%) and reflected increased crude petroleum extractions in Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador, along with increased natural gas extractions. Meanwhile, oil sands extraction (-1.7%) tempered growth, as maintenance at several facilities lowered synthetic crude production in Alberta.

Mining and quarrying (except oil and gas) (+1.2%) further added to the growth in February. A rebound in metal ore mining (+2.7%) led the expansion, driven by increased copper, nickel, lead and zinc ore mining (+6.6%) which coincided with higher exports of copper in February. Non-metallic mineral mining and quarrying (+2.8%) expanded, marking its second consecutive monthly increase, on widespread expansions across all comprising industries.

Finance and insurance sector up in February

Finance and insurance grew 0.3% in February, driven by expansion in banking, monetary authorities and other depository credit intermediation (+0.4%). Growth in loan and mortgage activity as well as deposits at chartered banks contributed to the increase.

Public sector weighs on February’s growth, on widespread contractions

The public sector aggregate (comprising educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration) was down 0.3% in February, following three consecutive monthly increases, on broad-based declines across all comprising sectors.

Chart 3
Federal government public administration (except defence) falls in February

Public administration (-0.5%) contributed the most to the decline in February, recording its second consecutive monthly contraction. Activity at nearly all levels of government was down in February with local, municipal and regional public administration (-0.7%) and federal government public administration (-0.4%) contributing the most to the decrease.

Educational services (-0.5%) were down for the first time in four months, on widespread weaknesses across all industry groups, led by elementary and secondary schools (-0.7%).

Arts, entertainment and recreation down on weakness in spectator sports

The arts, entertainment and recreation sector contracted 2.5% in February, recording its first decline in three months and the largest since January 2022 when public health measures were implemented to contain the Omicron variant of COVID-19. Performing arts, spectator sports and related industries, and heritage institutions (-5.8%) were down the most, driven by lower activity in spectator sports. The decline coincided with a two-week break in the National Hockey League schedule as certain players participated in the Milano-Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic Games.

Chart 4
Main industrial sectors’ contribution to the percent change in gross domestic product in February

Advance estimate for real gross domestic product by industry for March 2026

Advance information indicates that real GDP was essentially unchanged in March. Increases in wholesale trade and transportation and warehousing were offset by decreases in retail trade and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. Owing to its preliminary nature, this estimate will be updated on May 29, 2026, with the release of the official GDP by industry data for March.

With this advance estimate for March, information on real GDP by industry suggests that the economy expanded 0.4% in the first quarter of 2026. The official estimate for the first quarter will be available on May 29, 2026, when the official estimate of real GDP by income and expenditure is released.

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