Consumer Price Index, March 2025
April 28, 2025
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% year over year in March, following an increase of 2.6% in February.
The year-over-year slowdown in the all-items CPI was driven by lower prices for travel tours and gasoline in March. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.5% following a 2.6% increase (excluding gasoline) in February.
Moderating the slowdown was the end of the temporary break on the Goods and Services Tax (GST)/Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) on February 15, which put upward pressure on prices for eligible products in March compared with February.
On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.3% in March. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI was unchanged.
Chart 1
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slows largely due to lower gasoline prices
Consumers pay less for travel tours and airfares
Year over year, prices for travel tours declined 4.7% in March after an 18.8% increase in February. On a month-over-month basis, prices for travel tours fell 8.0% in March following a notable increase in February (+23.2%) during President’s Day weekend in the United States.
Air transportation prices fell 12.0% year over year in March following a 4.4% decline in February. This was a result of a smaller monthly increase in March 2025 (+1.2%) compared with the monthly increase in March 2024 (+10.0%), coinciding with decreased Canadian air travel to the United States.
Chart 2
Price growth slows in four major components
Gasoline prices fall year over year
Year over year, consumers paid 1.6% less at the pump in March following a 5.1% increase in February. The decline was largely a result of lower crude oil prices amid concerns of slowing global oil demand and slowing economic growth related to the threat of tariffs. Additionally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) confirmed a planned increase to production.
Chart 3
Gasoline prices decline year over year in March
Lower prices for cellular services
Prices for cellular services fell 8.8% on a year-over-year basis in March, following a 3.7% decline in February. The larger year-over-year decline was a result of a 6.8% month-over-month decline in March, due to lower prices for cellular phone plans amid industry-wide promotions.
First full month following the GST/HST break
With the end of the federal tax break on February 15, March was the first full month with GST/HST re-applied to the affected products since November 2024, resulting in upward price pressure.
Prices for food purchased from restaurants moderated the slowdown in headline inflation, rising 3.2% year over year in March after a 1.4% decline in February.
Chart 4
Upward price pressure on some products due to the end of GST/HST break mid-February
Chart 5
Restaurant prices rebound in first full month without the GST/HST break
